PROYEKSI KEBUTUHAN AIR MINUM TAHUN 2033 PADA WILAYAH PELAYANAN IPA BRONI 1 PDAM TIRTA MAYANG KOTA JAMBI (Studi Kasus Wilayah Pelayanan IPA Broni 1)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze projected drinking water demand in the IPA Broni 1 service area of PDAM Tirta Mayang, Jambi City, for the period 2024–2033. The study employed a quantitative descriptive approach using secondary data consisting of population data for 2016–2023, customer data for 2020–2023, and water consumption data by customer category. Population projection was tested using arithmetic, geometric, and linear regression methods, and the most suitable method was selected based on the smallest standard deviation. Water demand was then estimated through two approaches, namely population-based projection and customer-based projection, followed by the calculation of average demand, maximum day demand, and peak hour demand. The results indicate that linear regression is the most suitable projection method with a standard deviation of 8,109.823. The projected population in 2033 reaches 391,520 people. Based on the population approach, the total average water demand in 2033 is 514.578 L/s, the maximum day demand is 643.223 L/s, and the peak hour demand is 1,029.156 L/s. Meanwhile, based on projected customers, the total number of customers in 2033 reaches 84,332 service connections, equivalent to 337,328 people served and a service coverage of 86.158%. The customer-based projection produces an average demand of 56.618 L/s, a maximum day demand of 70.773 L/s, and a peak hour demand of 113.237 L/s. These findings show that drinking water demand in the IPA Broni 1 service area will continue to increase, and therefore periodic updating of population, customer, and consumption data is required to support future water supply planning.